Let battle commence. The controversy so far over the building of the new north-south high-speed railway line, HS2, has been led by well-heeled residents of the Chilterns who are seen as self-serving nimbys. Now that the northern sections of the route have been announced, the arguments will undoubtedly intensify and broaden out to examine the viability of a project that will cost at least £33bn and take 20 years to build.
Indeed, ministers face an uphill task in convincing many of their own supporters, let alone a sceptical public, of the project’s wider benefits. Let’s take that price tag first. It was first announced when the broad outlines of the scheme were set out by the Labour government in its dying days and is therefore merely a guess with no detailed analysis to back it up. Indeed, the decision announced today to build stations in the centre of Leeds and Manchester, while definitely correct in terms of bringing benefits to those cities, will increase the cost enormously since, as our Victorian forebears found out, that last mile or so of rail line into urban areas is by far the most expensive.
Then there is the gradually weakening case for the line. When HS2 was first announced, it was presented as not only having enormous economic benefits but also as environmentally sustainable because of people transferring from road and air to rail. In fact, subsequently the environmental case has all but collapsed since the effect of the line would be pretty much carbon neutral according to the study by HS2 Ltd, the government body charged with taking forward the scheme, if the impact of its construction were taken into account. The environmental case was fatally weakened by the realisation that few high-speed train passengers would transfer from air. Again, HS2 Ltd found that most users would otherwise have taken conventional train services or simply not made the trip.
That left the business case as the principal justification for the scheme and this has steadily worsened over time as more details of the plan emerged. The benefits are based largely on journey time reductions made by those travelling, but when opponents highlighted the fact that since people now can work on trains with their laptops and mobiles, these savings are largely illusory. Today’s document promises “benefits” of just £2 for every £1 spent, a pretty weak ratio for such a massive scheme, especially as it is based on an unrealistic cost estimate and these imaginary savings.
That is why, in announcing the second stage, the government is now focusing on the regeneration benefits, presenting the line as a way of bridging the north-south divide. However, the evidence that the new line will help reduce divisions between the regions is thin and, indeed, can point the other way, with London being the beneficiary. On Radio 4′s Today programme, Prof John Tomaney of the School of Planning at University College London, who has researched the effect of high-speed lines across the world, said: “The argument that high speed can reshape economic geography has been used in several countries around the world such as France, Spain, South Korea… but in practice there is very little evidence that building a high speed rail line heals north-south divides.” In fact, Tomaney found there was strong evidence the other way, with the capital cities rather than the provincial towns, benefiting from the line. In terms of employment, therefore, the argument in the government’s report that the line would create 100,000 jobs smacks of pure fantasy.
Ultimately, this whole scheme is a finger-in-the-air job. The Victorians built their railways on that basis, not really aware of the huge impact they would have or, indeed, whether they would ever pay for themselves. However, in the 19th century, the railways were a monopoly and it took almost a hundred years before the car and the lorry made inroads into the railways’ market.
Today we have the internet, broadband, mobile telephony and even the possibility of driverless cars let alone more mundane exogenous factors such as oil prices and planning policies that ultimately could all affect demand for rail travel. The variables and what Donald Rumsfeld would call the unknown unknowns over a 20-year period are so great that in effect, despite all the pseudo scientific business case methodology, this is all one big punt by the politicians. Yet, despite the lack of evidence to support the case for the line, it has now become part of the political consensus supported by all three main political parties rather like the idea in the noughties that Britain’s wealth would be sustained by allowing bankers free rein. And we all know what happened next.
Article reproduced with kind permission.
Great Railway Revolution
The Epic Story of the American Railroad...
- Find out more
- Order online
International Railway Journal
MOLDOVA's minister of transport and road infrastructure, Mr Anatol Salaru, is hoping to secure financial aid of €50-60m from the European Bank for Reconstruction..
ALPINE Rolling Motorway (AFA), the piggyback shuttle service between France and Italy operated jointly by SNCF Geodis and Trenitalia, has gained 52 new customers in the six months since the 12.2km Mont Cenis tunnel was cleared for trains carrying 4m-high semitrailers.
INVENSYS Rail Dimetronic has begun dynamic testing of the signalling system on the initial 4.3km section of Singapore's Downtown Line between Chinatown and Bugis in preparation for the start of commercial services in October.
LATVIAN Railways (LDZ) has selected a consortium of Bombardier and Belam Riga to deliver Bombardier's Interflo 200 mainline signalling system on a section of the Bolderaja - Zasulauks line which connects the capital Riga with the Bolderaja and Riga harbour area. The contract is worth Lats 9.5m ($US 17.9m), including a Lats 3.7m share for Bombardier.
www.progressiverailroading.com US News
www.railway-technology.com Updates
| Siemens to install GSM-R technology on Danish rail fleet Siemens has won a €20m contract from Danish railway infrastructure operator Banedanmark to equip 840 rail vehicles with GSM-R (global system for mobile communication railways) technology. Bombardier-led group wins signalling contract from Latvian Railways A consortium of Bombardier and Belam Riga has secured a LVL9.5m ($18.2m) contract from Latvian Railways (LDz) to build and upgrade signalling and associated infrastructure systems in the district of Bolderaja in the Latvian capital, Riga. CSX to build new intermodal facility in Quebec, Canada US-based transportation firm CSX has announced that it will build a $100m intermodal rail terminal in the city of Salaberry-de-Valleyfield in Quebec, Canada. California High-Speed Rail Authority awards Central Valley construction contract The California High-Speed Rail Authority (CHSRA) in the US has awarded a project and construction management (PCM) contract to PGH Wong Engineering and Harris & Associates for the initial phase of California's high-speed rail project. | ||||
 UITP, CER, EMTA and EPTO call upon European Parliament and member states to take action to preserve the PSO Regulation
Brussels, 29 January 2013
Future Rail - Issue 5 - February 2013 Read about Crossrail taking shape....... More news.... Shedmaster Railway News According to the mirror.co.uk - The new 225mph high-speed rail link will help create nearly a quarter of a million new jobs in the North of England, a think-tank claims. World Heritage & Railway News Drive a steam locomotive on the North Yorkshire Moors Railway.... | ||||
High speed rail-Announcing the preferred route for consultation north from Birmingham and on to Leeds and Manchester.
With permission, Mr Speaker, I would like to make a statement about our railways.
Investing in transport infrastructure is not a choice.
To create jobs and to rebalance our economy we need…
…better roads, better airports and better trains.
And high speed 2 is a central part of that investment.
That is why, today, I am announcing our preferred route for consultation north from Birmingham and on to Leeds and Manchester.
These new services will reach 8 out of 10 of our largest cities.
Places such as Birmingham, Liverpool, Manchester, Leeds, Sheffield, Glasgow and Edinburgh.
In all 18 cities and many more towns too will be served by HS2 services.
It will be completely integrated with the existing rail network.
It will bring people and businesses together.
It will create an estimated 100,000 jobs.
And it has the backing of businesses and cities across Britain.
We will introduce legislation for the first phase in this parliament.
And legislate for the second in the next one.
Construction is set to begin in 2017.
The first trains will run in 2026.
And the second phrase will open fully by 2033.
Mr Speaker, I would like to make 3 further points.
The first is about the need for the line.
HS2 will be the first main line to be built north of London for almost 120 years.
Some say we don’t need another.
But the truth is that we are already good at squeezing the most out of our Victorian railway network.
And yes, we will get even more out of it in the coming years with massive investment.
We are electrifying 800 miles of track, building Crossrail and the Northern Hub upgrade.
These will help to keep us going for the next decade or 2.
But what then?
Rail passenger numbers have doubled… doubled… over the last 15 years.
And demand will keep growing,
The West Coast Mainline is filling up.
There is not enough space for all the commuters, freight trains and inter-city trains that need to use it.
That is why I am publishing, after very careful consideration, my initial preferences for phase two of HS2.
The case for going ahead rests on the capacity it will provide.
And on the new connections it will create.
It is not just about faster trains to London…
…but also changing the way our great cities work with each other.
Easy links on journeys that are difficult today.
Giving muscle to the economies of cities beyond London.
Producing an estimated £2 in economic benefit for every £1 that is spent.
Mr Speaker, frequently, I hear calls from colleagues in this House for better services to their local stations.
They are right to ask for them.
And high speed 2 is part of the solution.
By creating free space on existing routes it will allow better services to places like Milton Keynes and many more.
Because I am determined to make sure the benefits of HS2 run much wider than the places directly served by the new line.
Mr Speaker, let me turn to my second point.
The detail of the route I am announcing today.
This follows the government’s announcement last year about phase one between London and Birmingham.
On the western leg from Birmingham to Manchester I propose 2 new high speed stations.
The first in the heart of Manchester, right alongside the existing station at Manchester Piccadilly.
Allowing easy connections to places such as Salford, Stockport and Bolton.
And a journey time to London of just 1 hour 8 minutes, down from over 2 hours today.
The second station will be at Manchester Airport, giving direct access to the wider Cheshire area.
HS2 also will serve Crewe via a dedicated link and high speed trains will continue on the existing railway to Liverpool and Runcorn.
They will also benefit greatly reduced journey times.
Further north, near Wigan, HS2 will connect with the West Coast Main Line…
so that high speed trains can then continue at regular speeds to places such as Preston, Penrith, Glasgow and Edinburgh.
I am working with counterparts in Scotland on their aspirations for high speed rail.
And I have already set out a long-term ambition to get journeys to Scotland below 3 hours.
Turning to the eastern leg…
we will construct 3 new stations to bring people and businesses in the East Midlands and Yorkshire closer together…
with Birmingham…
with the North East…
and with London.
The east midlands station will be located between Nottingham and Derby at Toton.
Links will be upgraded to provide fast access to nearby cities.
The second station will be at Sheffield Meadowhall.
It already has good connections and these can be improved further …
allowing it to serve all of Sheffield and South Yorkshire.
The third station will be located in the centre of Leeds alongside the south bank area.
As with the western leg, there will be a connection from HS2 onto the existing rail network.
A connection to the East Coast Main Line, just 9 miles from York, will allow the north east to benefit, too.
London to York in just 1 hour 23 minutes.
And Newcastle in just 2 hours 18.
Finally, a decision on how best to serve Heathrow will be taken after the outcome of the Airports Commission has been considered by the government.
But from day one HS2 will provide far faster journeys than now via a major new interchange at Old Oak Common…
linking to the Great Western Mainline, Crossrail and the Heathrow Express.
The third point I want to make today is about design and help for those most affected.
I know this is an issue that many hon. members want the government to take extremely seriously.
And we are.
I know that although the line will benefit the country as a whole…
…it will also create great anxiety among those close to proposed route.
So we will consult properly.
Design carefully.
And compensate fairly.
Let me stress that today I am announcing a preferred route.
This is the start of the process not the end.
We are ready to listen. Ready to improve.
I want this line to create jobs and prosperity not harm it…
so where businesses may be affected, we will work with them to find a solution.
We will now begin a period of informal consultation on phase two.
This will inform the official public consultation, originally planned for 2014…
but which I can announce will be brought forward to this year.
Mr Speaker, I understand how proposals like these can affect property markets.
So compensation will be as generous as on the first phase, and more generous than when we built motorways.
Today I launching a public consultation on the exceptional hardship scheme for those who must sell but can’t because of HS2.
Under this scheme, we will pay the full price, valued as if there was no HS2.
This will be followed by the next stage of our property compensation scheme once the final route is confirmed.
Mr Speaker, there aren’t many issues on which all the political parties in this House agree on.
It often feels like there are none at all.
But this is one.
Because regardless of the nature of the government when the first trains run in 13 years’ time.
What matters are the jobs…
the rebalancing of the economy…
our country’s future prosperity.
I commend this statement to the House.
Statement to the House of Commons by the Rt Hon Patrick McLoughlin MP
(28th January 2013)
No comments:
Post a Comment
Tell us your Railway News!